Some Principles for Re-Designing the Financial System

Author: 
Sony Kapoor

"Colossal taxpayer funded bailouts have steered us away from financial hell, at least for the time being. But the financial sector already wants to go back to ‘business as usual’. That way lies more fire and brimstone. Incorporating guiding principles in the design of regulations and bailout packages can help restore public confidence and ensure that we exit the crisis with a different but better financial system.

Competitiveness:

A 20%-25% return on equity for banks, 2/20 % hedge fund fee structures and more than $100 billion in bonus payouts are all signs of too little competition in the financial sector. When the sector reports 30%-40% of all corporate profits as it did in the US, it is evidence of an oligopoly which is parasitic to the real economy. We have a rentier financial system.

Current regulations favour big institutions over small, international banks over domestic banks and complex ones over simpler rivals. This asymmetry, economies of scale and the public subsidy that institutions considered ‘too big or too complex to fail’ enjoy has driven the trend towards ever greater consolidation into financial giants with few if any new entrants.

The high rewards available to employees and shareholders in a non-competitive system and the protection against failure for large institutions skew incentives and encourage speculative and destabilizing behaviour. Barriers to entry need to be lowered and financial institutions need to be broken up so their failure no longer poses a threat to the system.

This would not only deliver a much better deal for customers and investors but also for taxpayers since such a system would also be less likely to crash.

Diversity:

Soldiers crossing a bridge are asked to break step else the bridge would become unstable and collapse. Likewise financial stability comes from diversity of behaviour. When everyone wants to buy or sell at the same time we get asset price bubbles and collapses.

We need the whole range of financial institutions – savings banks, insurance firms, merchant banks, pension funds and development banks doing what they are supposed to do. When banks behave like hedge funds, hedge funds like banks and insurance companies like both we are in serious trouble.

Current regulation allows market prices and institutions’ own judgement of risk to influence how much capital they hold. Since this capital is held to guard against market and institutional failures in the first place, there is a big contradiction here. This, together with the use of similar risk management and bonus incentive systems drives everyone to invest in the same assets at the same time and reduces diversity. It has made the financial system more pro-cyclical, unstable and prone to systemic collapse.

Financial institutions need to be regulated by what they do not what they say they do. Capital requirements need to be mandated by regulators not markets or own judgement. Diversity can come from different investment horizons, incentive systems, risk appetites or regulatory requirements..."

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Posted : Friday 16 October 2009 19:31 | Managing Editor

Comments

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Sony Kapoor puts his finger on one of the central problems in the current financial - lack of competition. Since the market size itself will not obviously change there must be a great number of components, i.e. companies. But size, until now, has meant stability, so thought patterns have to change, at every level. Solutions are not immediately obvious, so it becomes important that we direct attention towards the causes of the present structure. Then we may be able to point in new directions. The current fad for witch hunting is very exciting, but ultimately non-productive. It may ease the hurt to pick on "Fred the Shred", but frankly he was operating in an environment that treated him as a God; he didn't do everything on his own. And the same can be said for all the other CEOs. And, whilst it is possible to suggest bad judgement, it does not appear that there was major wrong doing, as per Enron and others, so we need to concentrate on the process. Unlike Mr Kapoor I am less inclined to rely on the Regulator. Regulators are, by nature, historians. They are essentially Civil Servants who watch what has happened, and then deal with those problems, which may not occur again in that form. For example, in the UK we saw the fall of Northern Rock because of a flawed business strategy, albeit one that made a lot of money for a lot of people prior to its demise. Yet, with this example before them the FSA apparently didn't see the same basic strategy undermining HBOS. A central factor in the crisis appears to be the mis-pricing of Risk. More intelligent people than me can analyse why that happened (I would like to see Sociologists and Social Psychologists involved in the analysis, as well as investment people) but ultimately the Populace, via the Government, picked up the tab. This opens a possible discussion about why the Populace cannot now make money on the mismatch of Risk. The thought is partially triggered by a period of time I spent with a major Accountancy firm. The major control function was not the Accountancy Regulator, but the cost of Professional Indemnity Insurance. Well managed and controlled businesses paid less PI. So, instead of over-restricting what a company can do, why not make it compulsory to take Risk Insurance from Populace Inc, and run the rates at levels that encourage intelligent financial management. The US Government lost a good opportunity of doing this when they failed to take over AIG. And if profit is a perfectly sound motivation for commercial companies, why should it not be the same for Populace Inc. The Risk premium could be applied to Banks, Investment Houses, Hedge Funds, and any body that deals in financial matters within a jurisdiction. Will it solve all matters? Hardly. There is no perfect solution, but at least this hits poor management were it hurts most - in the pocket.
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