Can Dudley do right at the No. 2 post at the Fed?

Exclusive reporting for FinReg21 by Darrell Delamaide

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is the lynchpin of the U.S. central bank system – it is the agent for all central bank market operations, the regulator for some of the biggest bank holding companies, and its head is vice chairman of the committee that decides monetary policy.

In fact, in the early decades of the Federal Reserve System, the New York Fed chief was called Governor and was the spokesman for the central bank. The first head of the bank, Benjamin Strong, was the counterpart for Bank of England Governor Montagu Norman and other monetary giants in the first half of the 20th century.

In more recent times, New York Fed chiefs have gone on to become chairman of the Federal Reserve Board – Paul Volcker – or Secretary of the Treasury – Timothy Geithner.

So it’s big shoes that William Dudley was chosen to fill earlier this year when he got the nod to succeed Geithner as president of the New York Fed, and his appointment was embroiled in controversy from the beginning.

For one thing, the former economist for Goldman Sachs was caught in an anti-Goldman backlash as the aggressive and profitable investment bank became the poster child for Wall Street hubris.

As Geithner’s protégé and choice for the post, Dudley was also affected by the new Treasury chief’s rocky start in office, from the controversy over his unpaid taxes to his dismal first appearance as the administration’s chief economic spokesman.

Some of the New York Fed board members – big guns like General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt and PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi – were reportedly unhappy with the selection process, and particularly Geithner’s pushing Dudley as his successor. Nooyi subsequently stepped down from the board.

Then came the flap over New York Fed Chairman Stephen Friedman’s ownership of Goldman Sachs shares in contravention of the Fed’s conflict-of-interest rules, which further stirred up public opinion even though Friedman had a waiver for the shareholding, which only became a conflict after Goldman sought bank holding company status last fall.

It didn’t help that Friedman was a former chief executive of Goldman and had led the search committee that selected Goldman alumnus Dudley to be the second-most powerful official at the Fed.

So Dudley, who had headed the New York Fed’s market operations under Geithner and had a strong following at the bank, came to the top post with a lot of baggage. Partly for that reason, no doubt, he has kept a somewhat low profile and even many people in the industry might be hard put to name the current head of the New York Fed.

Recently, though, Dudley has begun to venture out somewhat more. At the end of August, he made what was described as his first appearance before television cameras on CNBC.

Talking to CNBC economic correspondent Steve Liesman, Dudley dodged a question about whether the Fed, and the New York Fed in particular, had gone too easy on the banks. He said he wasn’t involved in bank supervision in the time leading up to the crisis.

“What I can tell you is there's no way I'm going to allow myself to be captured by the banks,” Dudley told Liesman. “No way.”

Even with a low profile, though, Dudley has given signs that he may be something of an interventionist.

In a June speech at the Bank for International Settlements, he contradicted former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan and to a certain extent current chairman Ben Bernanke with the opinion that the Fed perhaps could do something about asset bubbles.

Dudley said that the received orthodoxy that asset bubbles are hard to identify – a Greenspan argument – may not be right. Big asset bubbles, such as that developing in real estate in 2005, might in fact be identifiable.

And if monetary policy is too blunt an instrument to deal with an asset bubble – a Bernanke argument – then perhaps the central bank should have new policy tools, Dudley suggested.

“For example, we might give a systemic risk regulator the authority to establish overall leverage limits or collateral and collateral haircut requirements across the system,” he suggested to the audience of central bankers and academics. “This would give the financial authorities the ability to limit leverage and more directly influence risk premia and this might prove useful in limiting the size of future asset bubbles.”

His remarks drew the ire of an op-ed contributor in The Wall Street Journal, Donald Luskin, chief investment officer for Trend Macrolytics.

“There’s little reason to expect the Fed can deal effectively even with a bubble identified well before the fact, or that it might not do more harm than good trying,” Luskin wrote, citing the example of the Fed tightening money to curb stock speculation after the 1929 crash and doing as much as anyone to usher in the Great Depression.Undeterred, Dudley was speaking out again last week (Oct. 13) to a group of international bankers in New York. He suggested that contingent capital for banks – debt instruments that converted to equity when triggered by certain balance sheet ratios – might be a way to counter the procyclicality of bank capital. He also suggested that banks should be banned from paying out dividends in times of stress because it depletes capital.

Dudley obtained his bachelor’s degree from New College in Sarasota, Fla., in 1974, and his doctorate in economics from the University of California in Berkeley in 1982. He lives in Cranford, N.J., with his wife, Ann Darby, who has served as the township’s deputy mayor.

Dudley actually began his career with the Fed, working as economist at the Federal Reserve Board in the early 1980s. He subsequently went to Morgan Guaranty Trust – one of the many banks merged together to create the current JP Morgan Chase. He then went to Goldman, rising to the position of chief U.S. economist, which he held for a decade before going to the New York Fed in 2007.

Dudley was apparently not the first choice of the New York Fed board for the top job. According to news reports, Chairman Friedman favored Kevin Warsh, a governor on the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, while board member Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JP Morgan Chase, was pushing Rodgin Cohen, a Wall Street lawyer.

It was Geithner’s input that eventually tipped the scales in Dudley’s favor, according to these reports. Among other things, the Treasury Secretary-designate pleaded for continuity in a time of crisis.

With the crisis now ebbing, Geithner is on much surer footing in his job in Washington and his successor in New York is starting to come out of the shadows.

Now he will have to work at showing he is his own man, not belonging to Wall Street and also not belonging to Tim Geithner.

He’s not there yet. When Dudley fielded questions at a Council on Foreign Relations event in March, he responded to a question about whether there should be more regulation with an anecdote about his former boss at the Fed.

Geithner was complaining about how all the bank CEOs were assuring him during the crisis that even though they hadn’t done very well at self-regulation, they were going to do much better at it now and did not need new regulations.

“Tim heard this several times,” Dudley told his audience at the Council, “and commented to me, self-regulation is to regulation as self-importance is to importance – which I thought put it pretty well.”

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Posted : Friday 23 October 2009 | Managing Editor

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Wednesday 06 October 2010 | john mason

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Wednesday 06 October 2010 | john mason

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Thursday 07 October 2010 | fendichen fendichen

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Thursday 07 October 2010 | andy david

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Saturday 09 October 2010 | uggboots cheapuk

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Monday 11 October 2010 | 815 xuedengfeng

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