No uptick in interest rates seen in the first quarter
Feb. 1--FOREIGN banks expect Philippine interest rates to rise only later this year amid growing credit demand.
Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) forecasts domestic Philippine bond yields will edge higher, as local liquidity conditions tighten amid a pick up in credit demand and bond issuances.
Edward Teather, UBS economist, however said that a sizable current account surplus should ensure interest rates do not rise too far even with heightened election risk.
The Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) also said that it expects yields to stay low in the first quarter even as the Philippines requires a huge amount to fund the government's budget deficit.
"We think the government remains comfortable with its funding prospects and there will continue to be heavy reliance on alternative funding sources, like foreign currency debt, to plug this year's budget gap of P293 billion," DBS said.
"Selling foreign currency debt should not be a problem and the next key events for the local bond market are the May election, when a successor to President Gloria Arroyo will be elected and the onset of the rate hike cycle. These, however, are still several months, not weeks, away," the Singaporean lender said.
It said domestic 10-year benchmark yields are likely to stay around 8 percent until the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) hikes rates, which will probably not be before the third quarter.
As yields are expected to pick up only later this year, UBS said it sees limited upside on the peso in the context of the forecast weakness of the US dollar.
The Swiss banking giant projects the local currency to reach 46-to-a-dollar by end-2010 owing to the Philippines' current account surplus and the BSP's leniency on currency appreciation.
The UBS said an important driver of the subsequent appreciation is the movement in the international value of the greenback.
Philippine traders said the local currency is likely to trade within the 45 to 48 range this year with a slightly stronger bias as it will be supported by remittances and the positive outlook on emerging markets.
On January 11, the peso recorded a 17-month high owing to weaker than expected US employment data. This has been the strongest close for the local currency since August 21, 2008, when it ended at 45.45 against the greenback. After hitting the month-high level, the peso succumbed to minor corrections several times and closed at 46.50 on Friday. Traders said the peso will likely breach the 47-to-a-dollar mark this week.
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